Recently, the United States has frequently provoked China on the Taiwan Province issue. US President Biden said that the United States will "defend Taiwan Province", US Secretary of State Blinken issued a statement "supporting Taiwan Province’s meaningful participation in the United Nations system", and the United States also invited Taiwan Province to participate in the so-called "Global Democracy Summit".The signal from the United States not only fuels the ambition of the Democratic Progressive Party authorities, but also makes the Taiwan Strait issue constantly controversial and discussed in the international community.
Why does the United States play the "Taiwan Province card" frequently? Will the United States intervene militarily in Taiwan Province? Why does Japan always make inappropriate remarks on the Taiwan Province issue? Is it a dead end for Democratic Progressive Party to "rely on the United States for independence"? Recently, Jin Canrong, a professor at China Renmin University, accepted an exclusive interview with a reporter from the People’s Political Consultative Conference.
Why is the United States keen on the "Taiwan Province brand"?
Reporter: Why does the United States always waver in its China policy?
Jin CanrongWithin the US government, the attitude towards China is not uniform. Biden’s team is divided into two factions: one represented by importers from Wall Street and the United States, and the other represented by the military-industrial complex. One faction, represented by importers from Wall Street and the United States, has gained great benefits in economic cooperation with China, so they hope that China and the United States can ease tensions and strengthen cooperation; The military-industrial complex has gained $768 billion in defense budget and a large number of military orders by advocating the "China threat theory", and "confronting China" has become the wealth password of the military-industrial complex.
As president, Biden’s political authority is not enough, so he can’t fully control the team. Therefore, the US policy toward China has two sides: on the one hand, events such as Meng Wanzhou’s return to China and the US’s plan to re-exempt some China’s imports from tariffs reveal the signal of easing relations between the two countries; On the other hand, the US Department of Commerce blacklisted a large number of China entities, constantly moved around Xinjiang-related issues, and frequently provoked the Taiwan Province issue, which reflected the tension between China and the United States.
Reporter: What is the value of Taiwan Province to the United States?
Jin CanrongThe United States believes that Taiwan Province has four values. First, strategic value. Taiwan Province is located at the core of the first island chain, and the United States believes that controlling Taiwan Province is the key factor to block China’s military power and curb the rise of China. Second, the alliance value. The United States has an alliance system, with 58 allied countries signing up, in addition to areas like Taiwan Province. The United States is a little worried that if Taiwan Province returns to the motherland, its prestige in the alliance system will decline. Third, economic value. For example, TSMC’s position in the global supply chain is very important and has certain economic value. Fourth, the model value. The United States hopes to use Taiwan Province as a model of "American democracy" and influence the political development of the mainland.
Reporter: Will the United States intervene in Taiwan Province through military means?
Jin CanrongThere are three schools of opinion in the United States on whether to intervene in Taiwan Province through military means:
The first faction clearly wants to intervene. This view is mainly held by the Republican right wing and individual senior military officials, with a small number.
The second faction thinks that Taiwan Province should be "sold" at a good price. Their main point is to make a deal with Chinese mainland in time and "sell" Taiwan Province to China when the comprehensive national strength of the United States is stronger than that of China and it also has great influence on Taiwan Province.
The third faction turned Taiwan Province into a "poisonous frog" and raised the cost of Chinese mainland’s reunification. The main means is not to intervene directly, but to make the "Taiwan independence" elements very powerful, leading to a dilemma for the mainland. There are many supporters of this faction. According to the report "The Poison Frog Strategy" issued by the Center for New American Security (CNAS), an American think tank, assuming that the mainland "attacks Taiwan by force", the United States "has almost no" reliable options to deal with it. Therefore, it is the best way to stop Chinese mainland before it acts. The US and Taiwan authorities should immediately start multilateral coordination and establish a "credible deterrent force".
I infer that the United States will not intervene in the Taiwan Province issue by military means, because almost half of the GDP of the United States at this stage is supported by financial-related industries. The most important thing in the financial industry is credit, and the GDP of the United States is based on the credit that the United States is the world’s number one power. At present, the US military is not sure about fighting the China People’s Liberation Army. If the military action fails, it will directly shake the credibility of the United States. This is not a matter of interest for the United States, but a matter of life and death, so the United States will not take this risk.
Why does the Japanese always want to intervene in the Taiwan Province issue?
Reporter: The "poison frog strategy" of the United States points out that the cooperation between the United States and Japan on the Taiwan Province issue is very important. Why does Japan also like to play the "Taiwan Province card"?
Jin CanrongTaiwan Province is far more important to Japan than Taiwan Province is to the United States. Taiwan Province is valuable to the United States, but this value is limited. For Japan, the change of the situation in the Taiwan Strait may be related to the life and death of the whole country of Japan.
As an island country with very limited resources, Japan is highly dependent on foreign trade. The Taiwan Province Strait is just one of the most important shipping lanes in Japan. If the two sides are unified and the Taiwan Province Strait becomes the internal sea of China, it will be equivalent to choking Japan’s foreign trade.
In addition, historically, Japan occupied Taiwan Province for 50 years after treaty of shimonoseki. During its occupation of Taiwan Province, on the one hand, it carried out a lot of de-China education, constantly slandering China culture and Chinese, which has influenced many Taiwan Province people to this day. On the other hand, the Japanese government also consciously arranged for a group of Japanese to immigrate to Taiwan Province. These people are also the backbone of today’s "Taiwan independence" forces, calling themselves "the backbone and soul of Taiwan". Conceptually, they feel that although they were born in Taiwan Province, they are Japanese in spirit and have close contacts with Japan.
The dual influence of interests and historical reasons makes Japan pay more attention to the Taiwan Province issue than the United States, and often makes some inappropriate remarks about it.
Reporter: Does it mean that Japan is also a big threat on the Taiwan Province issue?
Jin CanrongMy point is that we can criticize some inappropriate remarks made by Japan, but we don’t need to be overly nervous, because Japan is powerless to deal with the Taiwan Province issue, and militarily, Japan does not have complete combat capability.
With the development of Internet, the current war form has moved from "land, sea and air" to "sky grid" and from limited space to infinite space. In the infinite space, it is China, Russia and the United States that really have complete combat capability, and other countries do not have this capability. Although Japan has dozens of satellites, it cannot form a complete combat system. If Japan wants to fight, it must rely on the help of the United States. Therefore, whether or not Japan will take action on the Taiwan Province issue depends entirely on the United States, not on itself.
民进党“倚美谋独”是死路一条
记者：民进党当局强调美方“对台承诺”和反对“单方面改变现状”，并再次鼓噪所谓“四个坚持”，原因何在？
Jin Canrong：现在的民进党当局心里很焦虑。台湾问题是一个“两国三方”游戏，“两国”是中国和美国，“三方”是中国大陆、中国台湾、美国。近年来，中国大陆主导台湾问题的能力明显上升，民进党很清楚单靠自己的力量无法改变现状，所以要尽可能地迎合美国，反复提醒美国“以台制华”。
记者：民进党为何热衷炒作“台独”话题？
Jin Canrong：民进党一直以来都坚持拒绝放弃“台独党纲”，拒绝承认“九二共识”，导致两岸关系出现僵局。民进党炒作“台独”话题主要有以下几个原因：第一是选举利益，第二是意识形态，第三是国际势力的操纵。选举利益上，通过煽动“台独”主张，民进党可以获得更多选票；意识形态上，“让台湾独立”已经成了民进党骨干分子的人生理想；国际势力上，民进党的很多高层都是接受过美国训练的，很容易被美国操纵。
Reporter: Is Democratic Progressive Party using the people of Taiwan Province as "hostages"?
Jin CanrongChinese mainland has always been very concerned about the people of Taiwan Province, and this concern was exploited by Democratic Progressive Party. Democratic Progressive Party’s current behavior is to kidnap the whole people of Taiwan Province as hostages, so that Chinese mainland can get the boat. Among the people in Taiwan Province, the proportion of truly determined "Taiwan independence" elements is not high, but under the long-term propaganda of Democratic Progressive Party, two-thirds of the people in Taiwan Province have begun to be "green", and these "green" people in Taiwan Province are still important sons and daughters of China to the central government of China, and they need to win the hearts of the people.
Therefore, we have been communicating with the people of Taiwan Province to win their hearts and minds. Although cross-strait relations seem tense at present, even a little military confrontation, cross-strait exchange activities have been held all the time, because we are willing to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and efforts.
Source: People’s Political Consultative Conference Daily (05th edition, January 8, 2022)
Media reporter:Guo Siqi is Lin Hui.
Editor: Gao Yang
New Media Editor: Xue Jing
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