分类： bb

　　　　[XCAR domestic new car original]

　　　　On May 8th, the brand-new Familia M5 in Haima was officially released.The new car is divided into 1.6 automatic transmission and manual transmission, with a total of 9 models, and the price range is 74,900-11,890 yuan.The new car was officially unveiled at the Qilu Auto Show in 2014, and then a 1.5T model will be launched, which is expected to be put on the market around the end of the year.

　 　　● More visual impact.

　　　　In terms of appearance, the design of hippocampus brand-new Familia M5 and Italian design company LD’ With the cooperation of A, the brand-new appearance ensures the wind resistance coefficient of 0.28. The front face of the new car has a larger straight waterfall front air intake grille. With the new headlight design, the front face looks more visually impactful, and LED daytime running lights are also equipped at the lower fog lights. The design of taillights is also very dynamic, and the chrome decoration on the license plate frame and the design of double tail rows make the tail of the new car have a good visual effect.

　 　　● Compared with the current models, the size has increased.

　　　　In terms of body size, Familia M5 has a length, width and height of 4698/1806/1477mm and a wheelbase of 2685mm, which is much larger than the current model. The current Familia M5 has a length, width and height of 4420/1730/1480mm and a wheelbase of 2615 mm.. The wheel size is 205/55 R16, and the 16-inch double 5 aluminum rings are not too small, but the design of the rims is a bit ordinary.

　 　　● The interior works more finely.

　　　　In terms of interior, the new Familia M5 adopts two colors of black+beige and black+orange. The center console is designed in black, and the high-end models provide a central control display screen, and there is a smaller display screen above it, which can display some vehicle information. The four-position multi-function steering wheel is fashionable in modeling design, and the bright brown design is adopted at the seat and door panel, which enhances a certain texture.

　 　　● There is enough space to place items.

　　　　In terms of space, there is not much storage space in the car, but it is enough to put down the water and mobile phones around, and there is enough space in the central control, armrest box, glove box and door panel. In addition, the trunk of the new Familia M5 has a volume of 415L, and the rear seat can be laid down in 4/6 minutes.

　 　　● The new car comes standard for home use.

　　　　In terms of configuration, the new car comes standard with reversing radar, auto-sensing headlights, headlights delayed off, LED daytime running lights, rain-sensing wipers, leather multi-function steering wheel and so on. In addition, the high-end models are equipped with driving computers, automatic air conditioners, seat heating, electric skylights, etc. Safety aspects such as ESP, HHC ramp assist system and TCS traction control system will all appear.

　 　　● The 6-speed automatic manual transmission is competitive.

　　　　In terms of power, Familia M5 is equipped with a 1.6L engine in the early stage and a 1.5T engine in the later stage. The 1.6L engine adopts iVVT variable valve timing and variable intake manifold technology, with a maximum power of 92kW(125Ps)/6000rpm and a peak torque of 161Nm/4000rmp；. The 1.5T turbocharged engine, which was put on the market later, also adopted iVVT variable valve timing technology, with an estimated maximum power of 120kW(163Ps) and a peak torque of 210Nm.

　 　 In transmission, the 1.6L engine matches the 6-speed manual and 6-speed automatic manual transmission, while the 1.5T engine only matches the 6-speed automatic manual transmission. For the chassis, Familia M5 adopts the front McPherson and rear multi-link design, and both adopt the lateral stabilizer bar.

　 　 ● Competitiveness analysis

　　　　As a brand-new compact model with its own brand, the competitors of Haima’s brand-new Familia M5 are naturally BYD Speedy, Great Wall C50, Changan Yidong and Emgrand EC7.

　
[Competitors are BYD Surui, Great Wall C50, Emgrand EC7 and Changan Yidong]

　　　　Comparatively speaking, among these rivals, BYD Speedy and Great Wall C50 are equipped with 1.5T engines. In addition, Speedy also has remote control function and DCT dual clutch, which makes the brand-new Familia M5 not dominant in technology. However, Familia M5 still has certain advantages in CVT gearbox of Emgrand EC7 and 5MT of Great Wall C50. In the future, the arrival of Familia M5 1.5T model will widen this advantage and become one of the more powerful competitive models among the A+ class models of its own brand.

　　　　Editor’s comment:With the continuous expansion of Haima’s product line, Familia, once a "pillar" model, may no longer be the biggest support for Haima’s annual sales data. However, with the continuous progress and strengthening of the product itself, the promotion of its market competitiveness still gives the new generation Familia M5 a brand-new historical mission. It is only a transition from maturity to success, and it still needs to stand the test of the market.

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On November 8, the DMH World Champion Edition was officially launched, and three new models were launched, with a guide price of 123,800-143,800 yuan. In addition, the new car has launched a "bite price", with a discount of 24,000 yuan to 99,800 yuan. After the World Champion Edition was added, the number of models on sale of Roewe D7 DMH increased to 6, with the guide price range of 123,800-145,800 yuan.

It is worth mentioning that the name of "World Champion Edition" comes from the fact that Roewe D7 DMH conducted a battery life measurement not long ago. The car successfully broke the Guinness World Record with a maximum distance of 2208.719km and an average fuel consumption as low as 2.49L per 100 km, and became the "car with the longest distance of driving with full fuel and electricity at a single time".

Despite the halo blessing of "world champion", the market performance of Roewe D7 DMH is not bright. In October, the sales volume was 2,227, ranking 90th on the car sales list. When the new car went on the market, Roewe D7 DMH was directly named after the "World Champion Edition", hoping to boost its market sales.

As an extended version, Roewe D7 DMH World Champion Edition has not been greatly adjusted in appearance, interior and configuration, but some details have been refreshed. In terms of appearance, the new car is equipped with a new style of wheels, which adds a bit of movement to the whole car. In addition, the new car has added the color of "Dawn Gold" to provide users with more choices.

In terms of size, Roewe D7 DMH World Champion Edition locates medium-sized cars, with body length, width and height of 4890/1890/1510mm, wheelbase of 2810mm and trunk volume of 450L. This size provides users with a spacious ride space, but the price of less than 100 thousand yuan has greatly improved its cost performance, which can be said to be the price of B-class cars only selling A-class cars.

In the interior part, the diamond texture of the middle and high models is changed to parallel lines, which is visually more simple, but does not lose the sense of fashion. In terms of configuration, Roewe D7 DMH World Champion Edition is equipped with a 12.3-inch central control touch screen and LCD instrument, which has the functions of voice control, continuous voice recognition, car networking, 4G WIFI, car KTV and so on. The high-equipped models provide L2-level automatic driving assistance.

In terms of power, Roewe D7 DMH adopts DMH system, equipped with 1.5L naturally aspirated engine and motor. The maximum power of the 1.5L engine is 82kW, and the maximum power of the motor is 137kW. The transmission system is matched with the first-speed DHT gearbox. The CLTC has a pure electric cruising range of 125km, a comprehensive cruising range of 1400km, and the lowest fuel consumption of WLTC is 3.95L/100km.

Comments: As an old-fashioned traditional car company in China, Roewe’s electrification transformation is still relatively positive. At present, a number of pure electric and DMH hybrid models have been launched, including the Roewe D7 DMH World Champion Edition, which was redesigned and listed this time. Although the listing of the new car has not changed much, the starting price of less than 100 thousand yuan is still sincere, which is a good choice for users who pursue practicality and long battery life.

　　Jinan

　　On the second day of the lunar new year, you must bring gifts to your parents’ home. According to the old rules, these gifts are a knife of meat (not less than four or five kilograms), two fish (fresh carp, each fish must weigh more than one kilogram, also known as "fish"), three bottles of white wine and four kilograms of snacks (egg cake, longevity cake, peach cake and ancient philosophers cake). These gifts are collectively referred to as "four-color gifts", which contain the four seasons of the year.

　　Qingdao

　　Visiting relatives from the first day of the first month. In Qingdao, "pro" and "qi" are strictly separated. On New Year’s Day, it is for important people and elders to pay New Year greetings. In the past, it was necessary to kowtow to elders, but now it is not very particular. Generally, it is just to bow and ask "Happy New Year", but aunts and cousins are not allowed to walk around on this day. On the second day of the second month, I pay a New Year call to my grandmother, when my grandmother is away, my son-in-law pays a New Year call to my mother-in-law, and on the fourth day, my unmarried but engaged daughter-in-law pays a New Year call to my future in-laws. From the fifth day of the first month, it is the day to walk around my aunts and cousins.

　　Visiting relatives and bringing gifts is called "making a basket" in Qingdao dialect, because in the past, visiting relatives used bamboo baskets that were brushed with clear oil and woven with thin bamboo strips. As for what to put in it, there is nothing special about it. Just put whatever you have at home, one or two bottles of Jimo old wine, two Bao Qing biscuits and a few apples, and that’s all. Anyway, relatives will only come up with one or two, and then press one or two back for a change, so as not to let the empty basket go back.

　　Zibo

　　When they return to their parents’ home, the girls will put the steamed bun as a basic gift into a basket, and then put four packets of snacks wrapped in red paper at the four corners of the basket, and then insert them with several sesame cakes. In this way, because the baked wheat cake is much higher than the rice basket after it is inserted empty, when the rice basket is finally covered with red bags, it looks like both festive gifts and many gifts. It indicates that the small days are full of prosperity and beauty.

　　When a daughter brings a gift to her parents, parents usually don’t return it. Parents will not accept all the gifts from their daughters, but leave them at the bottom of the basket, which means that they can’t let their daughters go home empty-handed.

　　Weifang

　　In the old days, people usually brought steamed bread, cakes, meat or two pounds of big fruit (fried dough sticks), and even better, two pounds of snacks and two pounds of loose wine. When the daughter goes back to her parents’ home, she brings a handkerchief (a general name for gifts in Weifang), in addition to snacks and wine, many also bring a white scaly fish that is "pressed in the pot" on New Year’s Eve (two white scaly fish and two tofu are put in the cooking pot on New Year’s Eve).

　　Yantai

　　String relatives, Yantai dialect is called "going out". In Yantai, the most distinctive "going out" gift for the Spring Festival is a kind of pasta called "Bobo". Every year after the 23rd day of the twelfth lunar month (that is, off-year), every family will make many "cakes". Flour needs to be kneaded many times to make it into the shape of a bird’s head and a big round body, which is called "milk cake"; Or make it into a round shape, with cut red dates all over it, which is called "jujube cake".

　　Weihai

　　Visiting relatives and friends during the Chinese New Year is usually from the second day to the fifth and sixth day, and can be extended to the fifteenth at the latest. There used to be such a jingle: "Pay homage to the fifth and sixth day of the New Year, and there is no cake and no meat." That means life is not good. If you are poor, you won’t have anything to eat on the fifth and sixth day. It doesn’t mean that you can’t visit relatives on the fifth and sixth day. Gifts brought by visiting relatives and friends are usually four cakes and a package of peach cakes. If the other person is an elder or an important relative, he will also bring a bottle of wine.

　　Tai ‘ an

　　On the second day of the second day, the new son-in-law will bring six big gifts to her in-laws’ families, and the six big gifts must be enough. There are two cocks, two fish, two bottles of wine, a back elbow and a pack of vermicelli. There is also a saying called "new three years and old three years", which means that the son-in-law who has been married for less than three years should prepare the same gift every year when he goes to his father-in-law’s house. The latter three years can be a little worse, and he can’t be casual until six years later.

　　Laiwu

　　Generally, when visiting relatives to give gifts, you should carry a basket with a dozen white-flour steamed buns and rice cakes and zongzi made by yourself. The rice cake is made like a pagoda, divided into nine layers, and each layer will be pressed with a circle of red dates. After the rice cake is steamed, the thorns of red dates are outside, bulging, and some have cracked their mouths, which looks really cute.

　　Heze

　　Generally, we go to friends’ homes, mostly before the Spring Festival, while we go to relatives’ homes, which is after the New Year. No matter where you visit, you should avoid the afternoon. Many people think it is unlucky to visit friends in the afternoon. Since you are visiting relatives and friends on holidays, you can’t go empty-handed. You always have to bring some gifts. During the Spring Festival, the most common gifts are tobacco, alcohol, sugar, tea, cakes and fruits, and some buy clothes for children of relatives and friends, and they will not forget to give them a lucky money.

　　Linyi

　　In Linyi, visiting relatives and friends in the New Year is called "going out". When you go out, you should bring some gifts. In the early 1980s, the gifts you brought were nothing more than steamed buns, vegetable bags, bean bags, vermicelli, etc. If the family conditions were good, you should put one or two carp, one or two packs of biscuits or peach cakes, and weigh one catty of sugar for the elderly.

　　Zaozhuang　

　　People often carry gifts to string relatives before the festival, which is called "send-off gift", and after the festival, it is a pure New Year greeting. There are no special rules about gifts, but the quantity must be an even number to show good luck. The main family will return some specialties such as vermicelli and vermicelli.

　　Texas

　　There is nothing special about visiting relatives to give gifts during the New Year in Texas. In the past, when the living standard was not high, the "bun basket" was the most important gift. Even when the daughter with the worst living standard goes back to her mother’s house, she should put the steamed white steamed buns, fried fruits and other foods in the basket, cover it with a clean towel on the belly of the sheep, and bring two packs of avocados (snacks) with her if she is a little better.

　　Liaocheng

　　In the past, the living conditions were not good, and the gifts given by my parents were nothing more than snacks and steamed bread, and some sugar, wine and fruit. Later, with the improvement of living standards, it was fashionable to give four-color gifts, namely wine, chicken, fish and meat, all of which must be in even numbers. Only half of the family’s things were kept and the other half was returned. In return, the bride’s family wants to send jujube flower cakes, which are quite large and silver-basin-like, which means step by step (cakes) every year. You should bring such a generous gift three years before you get married, and then you will be free.

　　Binzhou

　　In the old days, when I went back to my mother’s house, I usually brought her two Jin of steamed bread (with red dots on the steamed bread) and two Jin of dried noodles. If the family conditions were good, I would buy another Jin of cakes, put them in a basket woven with plastic strips and cover them with cloth. When she comes back, her mother’s family will leave half of what she has taken and bring the rest back by herself. This is called "leaving a leftover head". Visiting relatives is also sending steamed bread and noodles.

　　Text | China Merchants Macro Zhang Jingjing Team

　　Core view

　　Under the trend of global economic slowdown, China’s exports exceeded market expectations for two consecutive months, and the market gradually questioned the authenticity of export data. Does the export growth rate exceed expectations mean that the export data is really wet? In other words, is there really no micro-foundation for the export data in March and April? This paper attempts to answer the above questions from multiple angles and state a more objective export view on the basis of multi-dimensional analysis..

　　The main reason for the high growth rate in March and April is by no means from false reports.Judging from the export "counterfeiting" incident announced in previous years, even excluding the conventional false data, the cumulative export amount from January to April this year was as high as more than 7630 billion yuan, and the cumulative export growth rate was about 10%, which was only 0.5 percentage points lower than the cumulative export growth rate announced by the General Administration of Customs.

　　Compared with industrial export delivery value, the export volume is more representative of the real export. In March and April this year, the growth rate of export delivery value and the total export volume showed a big deviation, but this is not evidence of false export data.1) The definitions of export delivery value and total export are quite different; 2) From a long period of time, the growth rate of export delivery value and the growth rate of total exports are similar, but for a short period of time, it is not uncommon for them to deviate from each other. In many months, the growth rate of total exports is higher than that of export delivery value. 3) Compared with export delivery value, the monthly growth rate of export volume has obviously changed, which is mainly caused by the statistical method of export volume. 4) It can also be seen from the export sub-items and PMI indicators that the export in March and April did not mainly depend on the industrial enterprises on the regulations.

　　Does the deviation of import and export growth rate beyond market expectations mean that the authenticity of export data is suspicious?The main commodity structure of China’s import and export is quite different. In the case of PPI price disturbance, the growth rate of import and export often deviates, not only in March and April. Not only is there a divergence in the growth rate of imports and exports in China, but the growth rates of the United States, Japan, the European Union and South Korea, as the main final consumer goods countries, often deviate, and more often, the growth rate of imports is greater than that of exports, which is mutually evidenced by China’s role as a big producer.

　　The difference between the data published by the importing country and the data published by the importing country may be more due to statistical standards, re-export trade of some products and other factors than false reporting.1) China’s exports to Singapore and Vietnam are obviously larger than the imports from China announced by the other side, which is mainly due to the existence of entrepot trade. 2) The amount of imports from China announced by the United States and the European Union is also different from the amount of trade exported to the United States and the European Union by China. In addition to the conventional factors such as differences in statistical standards, time differences and entrepot trade, China is also a big country of final consumer goods. In recent years,’s exports to the United States-the United States imports from China and China exports to the European Union-the European Union imports from China are not the same. The possible reasons are as follows: First, American importers deliberately understate their imports from China to avoid import tariff sanctions. Compared with 2016 and 2017, the difference between China’s exports to the United States and the United States imports from China since 2018 is obvious. Second, compared with other countries, the energy crisis in Europe is more serious in 2022, and the freight for the import and export of goods is obviously higher, which directly causes the EU’s import from China-China’s export to the EU to jump sharply, and other trade exchanges such as South Korea and Europe have the same trend.

　　The reason why export performance exceeds market expectations is more the result of diversification of export commodity structure and export destination.1) The high growth rate of export in March was mainly the comprehensive result of the release of the backlog of export orders in the previous period and the effective purchase of orders abroad. In April, export delivery value jumped from-5.4% of the previous value to 0.7%, and exports were more contributed by the shipment value produced in the current period. 2) The structure of China’s main export commodities has obviously gradually moved closer to that before the epidemic, and the advantage of complete industrial chain can indeed enable enterprises to switch commodity structures to adapt to global demand in a relatively short period of time. Compared with that before the epidemic, the contribution of automobiles (including chassis) and auto parts to the total export volume has been on the rise, which has also become the main commodity driving export growth. 3) Thanks to China’s active participation in regional trade, expansion of trade network and continuous deepening of economic and trade cooperation with non-European and American countries, the "Belt and Road", ASEAN, Russia and other non-European and American countries have significantly increased the driving force for China’s export growth.

　　We believe that the shift in export growth does not mean that the export growth rate will continue to decline this year.Judging from the PMI index published in China and the export base last year, we believe that the export growth rate will change gears continuously from May to July. However, there is a high probability that the annual export growth rate will still be positive, and the export growth rate from May to December will show a trend of "falling first and then rising".

　　main body

　　One,In the past, there were indeed false reports on export data, but the main reason for the high growth rate in March and April was by no means false reports.

　　Just talking about the authenticity of the data, the State Administration of Taxation will announce the punishment of false reporting of export data and tax fraud every year, which shows that there is indeed the possibility of false reporting of export data, but it is untenable to classify the reasons for exceeding expectations in March and April as false reporting.The false export data is more for tax fraud. Since August 2018, the State Administration of Taxation, together with the Ministry of Public Security, the General Administration of Customs, the People’s Bank of China and other departments, has continued to carry out regular work to crack down on tax fraud. In the context of cracking down on export false reports, there are still criminals who falsely report export data through various means. Since the government has not published the amount of tax recovery from export tax fraud in a specific period of time in detail, we might as well calculate from the export "counterfeiting" incident announced in previous years. In April 2022, the State Taxation Bureau announced that since the special action to crack down on illegal tax fraud was launched in August 2018, by the end of March 2022, the tax authorities had recovered 34.6 billion yuan of national tax losses by investigating and dealing with illegal export tax fraud. According to this rough calculation, about 10 billion yuan of export tax rebates were recovered every year. In addition, the proportion of export tax rebate in total exports is basically maintained in the range of 8%-10%. Based on this, the accumulated amount of export false reports in January-April this year is about 34 billion-42.5 billion.Even excluding the conventional false data, the cumulative export amount from January to April this year was as high as more than 7.63 trillion yuan, and the cumulative export growth rate was about 10%, which was only 0.5 percentage points lower than the cumulative export growth rate announced by the General Administration of Customs.

　　In addition, at present, there are mainly two ways to falsely report exports: first, the government actively injects water to falsely report; second, enterprises forge export orders to defraud taxes; third, enterprises set up offshore companies or blend trading partners to defraud taxes through the continuous link of "exporting to domestic sales". We speculate that there are four reasons why the probability of large-scale false reporting of export data in March and April is small:

　　1) In March this year, the cumulative amount of export tax rebate announced by the Ministry of Finance was 553.1 billion yuan, which was significantly higher than last year’s 497.1 billion yuan. It is worth noting that the Notice of the State Council on Issues Related to Improving the Burden Mechanism of Export Tax Refund shows that since January 1, 2015, all export tax rebates (including VAT refund for export goods and VAT refund for business tax) will be borne by the central government, and the export tax rebate base originally borne by local governments in 2014 will be paid to the central government in a fixed amount. If local customs or governments cheat taxes by falsely reporting export data, they need to forge bills in multiple links. Unless the central government is willing to subsidize local governments in disguise in this way, it is difficult to escape the examination.

　　2) As mentioned earlier, even in the stricter export "counterfeiting" supervision, some enterprises still cheat tax refund by forging export orders, but there is no reason for enterprises to choose to focus on a large number of false reports in March and April, especially at present, they are in the downward period of exports, and the false reports of export orders of micro-enterprises are more likely to be suspected.

　　3) Under the background that the full invoice pilot is gradually launched and the fourth phase of golden tax is about to be launched, the tax collection and management system has gradually changed from "managing tax by votes" to "managing tax by numbers", that is, relying on big data for tax governance. Under stricter supervision, the difficulty of export tax fraud has greatly increased.

　　4) In addition to falsifying data, another common tax fraud method at this stage is "export to domestic sales", that is, setting up offshore companies or blending trading partners, exporting A goods abroad at a high price, and then importing A goods into China at a low price, thus earning the difference between export tax rebate and customs duties. Generally speaking, this method is not easy for micro enterprises to find, but from the breakdown data of commodities, we can see that among the main commodity structures of import and export, only the import prices of integrated circuits and refined oil in April are significantly lower than the export prices, and because the growth rate of import and export of integrated circuits is less than zero, even if there is tax fraud, it cannot be the main driving force for the overall export growth rate to exceed expectations. The difference between the import and export prices of refined oil products is mainly due to the downward trend of crude oil prices, which is far from the export tax fraud. Except for integrated circuits and refined oil products, the export prices of other commodities are often lower than the import prices, so the argument that a large number of export growth rates are pushed up by "exporting to domestic sales" is not established.

　　Second,Compared with industrial export delivery value, the export value is more representative of real export.

　　When observing exports, the market tends to pay more attention to two indicators: export delivery value and total exports. In March and April this year, the export growth rate of these two indicators showed a big deviation, and we don’t think this can be used as evidence to suspect that the export data is false.

　　1) The definitions of export delivery value and total exports are different.Specifically: First, the reporting period is different. export delivery value is the value of products produced in this period, handed over to foreign trade management departments or self-export in this period, while the total export value is the total value of products exported in this period, not necessarily produced in this period; Second, the statistical scope is different. export delivery value is a product (both local and foreign) produced by industrial enterprises and handed over to foreign trade management departments. The total export value is the value of products exported by all foreign trade management units and industrial enterprises. It is worth noting that some products included in export delivery value may be sold at home after being traded by foreign trade management departments, thus not being exported; Third, the calculation method is different. export delivery value only calculates the processing fee for the products processed with imported materials, while the total export amount is calculated at the full price of the exported products. Fourth, the prices are different. The products handed over to the foreign trade management department in export delivery value are calculated according to the purchase price of the foreign trade management department, and the total export amount is calculated according to the FOB price.

　　2) From a long period of time, the growth rate of export delivery value and the growth rate of total exports are similar, but in a short period of time, it is not uncommon for them to deviate from each other. In many months, the growth rate of total exports is higher than that of export delivery value.Compared with the total export volume, export delivery value’s statistical scope is smaller and it doesn’t necessarily include the completed export. Therefore, in academic research, the indicator of export delivery value is often used to examine whether the micro participates in the export, and the specific transaction behavior to measure the overall export still uses the export volume.

　　3) Compared with export delivery value, the monthly growth rate of export volume has obviously changed, which is mainly caused by the statistical method of export volume.The statistical process of import and export data of customs goods is extremely "microscopic". When the import and export goods pass through the customs, the specific consignor or consignee must declare the documents to the customs, and the customs declaration will list all kinds of basic information of the goods (such as quantity, amount, destination and other information). After obtaining these customs declarations, the customs will screen out the customs declaration data that meet the statistical conditions, and directly calculate other sub-items such as import and export data and commodity structure on this basis. In the whole process, the customs mainly plays the role of statistics, and does not need other data to calculate. In other words, the data on the customs declaration submitted by the customs will directly enter the customs database and become the basic data of the customs import and export accounting, which is also doomed to a large monthly fluctuation of export data.

　　In addition, it can be seen from the export sub-items and PMI indicators that the exports in March and April did not mainly depend on the regulated industrial enterprises.According to the export data by enterprise type, compared with state-owned enterprises, collective enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises, the cumulative export of other types of enterprises (mainly private enterprises) rebounded significantly in March compared with the same period of last year. From the index of PMI new export orders, the increase of PMI new export orders of small enterprises was the most obvious in January and February, and once surpassed that of large enterprises in February. Small enterprises other than industrial enterprises are still an important force to drive exports. This can also explain to a certain extent that it is not surprising that export delivery value and the export volume deviated in March and April.

　　Third,Does the deviation of import and export growth rate beyond market expectations mean that the authenticity of export data is suspicious?

　　At present, China is still a major producer in the world, and the growth rates of imports and exports are synchronized in most of the time. However, because of the great differences in the structure of major commodities of imports and exports, in the case of PPI price disturbance, the growth rates of imports and exports often deviate, not only in March and April.When PPI is at a low level year-on-year, "price" has a great drag on the total import volume, and the export growth rate is often significantly higher than the import growth rate; On the contrary, when PPI is at a high level, "price" becomes the main pulling item of total imports, and the growth rate of imports is obviously higher than that of exports. At present, PPI is at a low point in the historical quantile, so it is natural that the export growth rate is greater than the import growth rate.

　　In fact, it is not only our country that the growth rate of import and export deviates, but also the United States, Japan, the European Union and South Korea, which are the main final consumer goods countries, often deviate from each other. More often, the growth rate of imports is greater than that of exports, which is mutually evidenced by China’s role as a big producer.

　　Fourth,The difference between the data published by the importing country and the data published by the importing country may be more due to statistical standards, re-export trade of some products and other factors than false reporting.

　　Because we use the total amount of FOB goods for export statistics, and the total amount of FOB goods or CIF goods for import statistics for export destinations from China, there is a gap between the two, such as freight and other expenses. Generally speaking, the total amount of China’s exports to export destinations should be less than the total amount of China’s imports from export destinations, but this is not the case.

　　China’s exports to Singapore and Vietnam are obviously larger than the imports from China announced by the other side, which is mainly due to the existence of entrepot trade.From the perspective of specific commodities, the difference between China and Singapore is mainly contributed by plastic products, clothing and its accessories, luggage and similar containers, furniture and its parts in labor-intensive products, household appliances, auto parts, lamps and general machinery and equipment in mechanical and electrical products, but this phenomenon does not exist in other commodities, especially high-tech commodities. The difference between China and Vietnam is mainly contributed by plastic products and textile yarns, fabrics and their products in labor-intensive products. In 2021, the total statistical difference between the two types of goods is 5.5 billion US dollars, accounting for 69% of the statistical difference of labor-intensive products in 2021.

　　In addition, as important countries of final consumer goods, the amount of imports from China announced by the United States and the European Union is also different from the amount of trade exported to two countries or regions by China, which is mainly caused by many factors such as statistical standards, time differences, transportation costs and tariff sanctions.From the historical data, with the end of 2019 as the dividing point, since 2020, the difference between China’s exports to the United States and the United States’ imports from China has turned from negative to positive. From the perspective of commodities, it is mainly contributed by labor-intensive plastic products, furniture and its parts, clothing and its accessories, lamps and lighting devices and their parts in electromechanical commodities and household appliances. On the contrary, the difference between China’s exports to the EU and the EU’s imports from China has been in the normal fluctuation range of positive and negative for a long time, and this difference began to turn negative in 2022. From the perspective of specific commodities, the average export value of other commodities except furniture spare parts is smaller than the EU’s imports from China, and this gap has obviously increased since 2022.In addition to the conventional factors such as differences in statistical standards, time differences and entrepot trade, China is also a big country of final consumer goods. In recent years,’s exports to the United States-the United States imports from China and China exports to the European Union-the European Union imports from China are so different. The possible reasons are as follows: First, American importers deliberately understate their imports from China to avoid import tariff sanctions. Compared with 2016 and 2017, the difference between China’s exports to the United States-the United States imports from China has shrunk significantly since 2018. Second, compared with other countries, the energy crisis in Europe is more serious in 2022, and the freight for the import and export of goods is obviously higher, which directly causes the EU’s import from China-China’s export to the EU to jump sharply. This phenomenon not only occurs in China-EU trade, but also exists in other trade exchanges such as South Korea and Europe.

　　Five,The reason why export performance exceeds market expectations is more the result of diversification of export commodity structure and export destination.

　　As previously analyzed, false export report can’t be the main driving force for the high export growth rate in March and April, so what is the main reason why China’s export growth rate has exceeded expectations when the export growth rate of other countries such as South Korea and Vietnam has obviously declined? We think there are the following factors:

　　1) The high export growth rate in March was mainly the comprehensive result of the release of the backlog of export orders in the previous period and the successive delivery of overseas orders.We provide two pieces of evidence: First, export delivery value in March (mainly counting the current period) was significantly narrower than that in December 2022, but the year-on-year growth rate was still negative, which indicated that the growth rate of export in March was the common result of the current and previous inventory squeeze; Second, after the liberalization of the epidemic prevention and control policy, many provinces began to organize groups to go abroad to grab orders, which directly led to a rapid increase in PMI new export orders in January and February 2023.Different from March, export delivery value jumped from-5.4% to 0.7% in April, and the export was more contributed by the shipment value produced in the current period.

　　2) As we mentioned in previous reports, the supply advantage of China is largely due to the integrity of the industrial chain. The integrity of the industrial chain enables domestic export enterprises to better cope with the changes in the international trade situation than other countries. We have counted the data of major export commodities since 2017. Compared with before the epidemic, the contribution of plastic products, textile yarns, fabrics and their products, shoes and boots, ceramic products, toys, automatic data processing equipment and its parts, mobile phones, audio equipment and its parts, integrated circuits, medical instruments and instruments to the overall export volume increased greatly during the epidemic. On the contrary, the contribution of agricultural products, refined oil, luggage and similar containers, steel products, wrought aluminum and aluminum products, and general machinery and equipment to the overall export volume has been significantly reduced.According to the export data of the last four months, the structure of China’s main export commodities has obviously gradually moved closer to that before the epidemic, and the advantages of complete industrial chain can indeed enable enterprises to switch commodity structures to adapt to global demand in a short time. It is worth noting that compared with before the epidemic, the contribution of automobiles (including chassis) and auto parts to the total export volume has been on the rise, and it has become the main commodity driving the export growth rate.

　　3) In addition to the changes in the structure of export commodities, China’s main export destinations are also more diversified.From the historical data, the manufacturing PMI in the euro zone and the manufacturing PMI in the United States are in line with the change trend of China’s export growth rate, which means that the decline of China’s export growth rate in 2023 still largely depends on the degree of economic recession in Europe and America.However, thanks to China’s active participation in regional trade, expansion of trade network and continuous deepening of economic and trade cooperation with non-European and American countries, the "Belt and Road", ASEAN and Russia have significantly increased the driving force for China’s export growth, among which ASEAN, Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and Indonesia account for an increasing proportion of China’s total exports.As far as the export data in April is concerned, the contribution rates of Russia, ASEAN, South Africa and Brazil to the overall export growth rate are 2.14%, 0.73%, 0.28% and 0.17% respectively.

　　Six,The fact that the export growth rate will shift does not mean that the export growth rate will continue to decline this year.

　　We are in "Do you need to shift gears for export growth? It is mentioned in the article that from May to July, the export growth rate will be continuously shifted, but this does not mean that the export growth rate will continue to decline this year.From the indicators published in China, the PMI value of new export orders dropped in April, but this will not immediately lead to a sharp drop in exports in May. According to historical data, PMI new export orders are often about 2-3 months ahead of exports, so the real pressure of export growth is mainly concentrated in June and July. However, due to the high export base in May last year, we believe that the export growth rate in May will be lower than that in April.

　　Although compared with last year, the overall export growth rate in the whole year has been set to a downward trend, there is a high probability that the export growth rate in the whole year will still be positive. From May to December, the export growth rate showed a trend of "falling first and then rising".The absolute change of export value and the marginal change of export growth rate cannot escape three key factors: supply, demand and comparative advantage. In 2023, China’s supply advantage still exists, and the latest data released shows that the export share advantage is still better than before the epidemic. The main uncertainty that determines the specific growth rate of exports comes from the overseas demand side. At present, in the context of the global economic slowdown, China’s export commodities and export destinations have good highlights. Although the driving force of American exports to China does show a decreasing trend, the contribution of countries other than the United States to China’s exports should not be underestimated.

　　Risk warning:

　　The overseas economic recession has exceeded expectations.

　　The above content comes from May 17, 2023, "Is there really moisture in export data?" Report by Zhang Jingjing and Zhang Yiping.

　　The procurator of the Procuratorate of Changyi City, Shandong Province came to the business premises with tattoo service in the jurisdiction to issue the warning sign "No tattoos for minors". Our reporter Lu Jinzeng correspondent Wang Shushe photo

　　The prosecutor of Shaoxing City Procuratorate in Zhejiang Province visited the tattoo shop. Our correspondent Shao Zhijia took a photo.

　　"The day before yesterday, a customer added me to WeChat and said that he wanted to get a tattoo in the store. I saw that his circle of friends found that he was a minor, and he clearly told him that he could not get a tattoo because minors were not allowed to get tattoos." Recently, the owner of a tattoo shop in Shuyang County, Jiangsu Province showed his WeChat chat record with customers to the staff of Shuyang County Market Supervision Administration who came to check.

　　In front of a tattoo shop that hasn’t opened yet, the staff stopped and contacted the owner anonymously through the contact information on the glass door. "Do you want a tattoo?" Are you a minor? Add me to WeChat, I need to check … …”

　　At 10: 50, the shop opened, and the owner pointed to the slogan "No Minors allowed" posted on the glass door, indicating that tattoos of minors were not accepted in the shop. When the customer was not sure whether he was a minor, he would ask the other party to show his ID card or check the other party’s electronic identity.

　　"I know what you said about the" Measures for the Management of Minors’ Tattoos ".We don’t give tattoos to minors." The staff went into a shop that had just registered for tattoo service in June this year, and saw that its business license stated "tattoo service (except for minors)". The owner said that no minors came to tattoo.

　　The staff of the Market Supervision Administration told the reporter that at present, there are 51 businesses in the county that can provide tattoo services, all of which have posted the sign of "No Entry for Minors" and will also issue risk warning letters to customers who come to tattoo.

　　The reporter interviewed the staff of Shuyang County Health and Wellness Bureau and learned that in the special inspection carried out this year, the phenomenon that merchants illegally cleaned tattoos for minors was not found again.

　　"Recently, the number of minors involved in the case that we came into contact with in conducting social investigations and helping and educating activities has decreased significantly, and even if there is one, it is the previous article." The teacher of the local "Golden Flower" Minors Judicial Social Service Center said.

　　Shuyang is the first civil public interest litigation case of minor tattoo in China. With the unremitting efforts of the local procuratorate, the local people’s congress issued a resolution prohibiting tattoo for minors.

　　In June this year, the Office of the Leading Group for the Protection of Minors in the State Council issued the Measures for the Management of Minors’ Tattoos (hereinafter referred to as the Measures), clarifying that no enterprise, organization or individual may provide tattoo services to minors. On the second day after the "Measures" were issued, the Xinghualing District Court of Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province sentenced a civil public interest litigation case for the protection of minors, which was the first civil public interest litigation case for minor tattoos in Shanxi Province.

　　In the same month, the Procuratorate of Fengfeng Mining Area in Handan City, Hebei Province visited and investigated more than 20 tattoo shops within its jurisdiction. During the investigation, the prosecutor found that most tattoo shops refused to provide tattoo services for minors, but some shops not only refused, but also advertised "half price for students" and "20% discount for students" to recommend complex tattoo projects to minors, and promised to clean them painlessly without leaving scars.

　　On June 28th, Fengfeng Mining Area Procuratorate launched an investigation. At the same time, it consulted with Market Supervision Administration and Sub-district Office on the rectification measures to strengthen the supervision of tattoo industry and put an end to tattoos for minors, and urged them to perform their duties.

　　In Luquan District, Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, the procuratorate also conducted a visit investigation with the public security organs.

　　"The law does not stipulate the age of tattoos, but tattoos of minors need to be considered clearly so as not to affect their studies and work. Our shop only discourages, please think twice before you do. " This tip was posted on the inner wall of a tattoo shop in Luquan District. Investigators asked the owner if he knew the Measures. "This was posted a long time ago. Some people don’t know their age, so they don’t cooperate with their ID cards. I don’t know if we can’t give tattoos to minors." Investigators found that there was a minor in the store’s register. In this regard, the owner explained that the customer only registered and did not actually get a tattoo.

　　Faced with such a situation, the prosecutor of Luquan District Procuratorate explained the specific contents of the Measures to the shopkeeper and distributed brochures to him. The shopkeeper posted the slogan "No tattoos for minors" on the spot. On August 24, the hospital sent a letter to the Market Supervision Administration, suggesting that it regulate the operation of tattoo industry according to law.

　　"Our investigation found that there are still some tattoo shops that don’t ask customers’ ages, or just ask verbally and don’t verify the registration. For minors who arrive at the store, they ‘ Turn a blind eye ’ 。” When interviewed by reporters, Han Yilu, assistant procurator of Haibowan District Procuratorate in Wuhai City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, was quite helpless. She said that the publicity and implementation of the Measures need to be further strengthened, and the supervision and governance of the tattoo industry should also be deepened. "On the one hand, we stepped up the popularization of law and asked tattoo shops to post ‘ It is forbidden for minors to get tattoos ’ On the other hand, the logo is also strengthening communication and cooperation with the Market Supervision Administration, the Health and Health Commission, the Education Bureau and other departments, strengthening source prevention and control, promoting social coordination, and promoting the establishment and improvement of long-term mechanisms. " Han Yizhen added.

　　It is the common responsibility of the whole society to prohibit tattoo of minors. The Party’s Report to the 20th CPC National Congress proposed to improve the social governance system, improve the social governance system of co-construction, co-governance and sharing, and enhance the efficiency of social governance. Smooth and standardize the channels for the expression of people’s demands, the coordination of interests and the protection of rights and interests, and build a social governance community that everyone is responsible, everyone is responsible, and everyone enjoys it.

　　In the interview, the reporter found that the good situation of everyone doing their duty to promote the tattoo management of minors is gradually taking shape.

　　"Boss, how much is the tattoo?"

　　"Please report your ID number, and now you are required to register."

　　"Boss, you here how so trouble. My ID number is … …”

　　"Hey, you are not an adult, you can’t do it."

　　"My classmate used to do it here. Why can’t he do it now?"

　　"I used to do it for children because I didn’t understand it, but now I can’t. You don’t want tattoos at a young age, wait until you are an adult and think about it. "

　　Shengzhou City, Zhejiang Province takes the lead in developing tattoo management for minors.

　　15-year-old Jamlom (not his real name) wants to give himself a birthday present — — Tattoos When he came to the tattoo shop, he was told by the owner that minors could not get tattoos.

　　"Some children are developing fast, and they can’t see their age only from their height and appearance. We will ask for registration now. For customers who consult online, they will also ask for the ID number to determine whether they are minors. " According to the owner, this year, the awareness of the tattoo shop in Shengzhou City to check customer identity information has been strengthened. "In the past, if you insisted on registering personal information such as customer ID numbers, people would be ignorant. Now this is the case in every store, and customers can accept it."

　　"The business behavior of tattoo shops has been further standardized, effectively cutting off the channels for minors in the jurisdiction to contact tattoos." Prosecutor of Shengzhou City Procuratorate introduced.

　　Recently, Know Car Emperor released the report "Insight into the Decision-making of Intergenerational Car Buyers from a Vertical Perspective", which comprehensively analyzes the behavioral preferences of intergenerational car buyers from four stages: starting car selection mode, generating car selection interest, precipitating car purchase intention and restoring decision-making characteristics, and interprets the new trend of intergenerational group consumption.

　　"Report" pointed out that the market concentration characteristics of the automobile market are becoming more and more obvious, and the trend of sales volume gathering to the head brands is getting stronger, and "brand" has become an important keyword in the era of stock. The user’s "brand" sensitivity is gradually stronger and the willingness is significant, and the car buying behavior of young people is more influenced by brand and word of mouth factors.

　　　Car sales are gathering with the head brands, and the sensitivity of users to choose car brands is enhanced.

　　In recent years, the automobile market in China has gradually moved from the incremental era to the stock era. At present, the head brand effect of automobile sales is remarkable. The proportion of automobile brand sales of TOP10 is increasing year by year, and it has occupied 61.2% of automobile sales in the market from January to July 2020. At the same time, the Report shows that in the first half of 2020, the brand retention share of TOP10 continued to increase, and the brand concentration of users’ retention continued to increase.

　　In the stage of car selection, the user’s sensitivity to the brand is also increasing, and the traffic of users arriving at the brand list page is obviously increasing, which is higher than the overall growth performance of knowing the car emperor’s traffic in the same period. For young users, the attention to the brand is significant throughout all stages from car selection to decision-making.

　　According to the Report, the brand sensitivity of users is enhanced during the attention period. After 90′ s, young users are more inclined to cut through the brand when choosing a car. The browsing significance of brand list pages of users aged 10-30 is over 100, while the older users are less inclined to cut through the brand. After the stage of generating interest and precipitation, young users in the decision-making period will be more sensitive to the brand.

　　In addition, more and more users find the target model through conditional car selection. According to the Report, from January to July, 2020, the click trend of knowing the car emperor’s conditional car selection showed a fluctuating upward trend, in which the click trend in July increased by 67% compared with that in January, and the growth rate of all click events in the same period was 30.1%. When using conditions to choose a car to buy a car, young users after 90 are more inclined to price and brand, and the car selection conditions are more comprehensive. However, mature users tend to search for models and vehicle factions, and intergenerational people show obvious consumption tendencies.

　　　The influence of "word of mouth and circle" is enhanced, and the decision-making of young users is more influenced by content.

　　In the stage of generating vehicle interest, the parameter configuration of vehicle models is more concerned, and the force of word-of-mouth public opinion and circle influence with social sharing attributes is gradually enhanced. In addition, the influence of car content on users’ car buying behavior is also rising.

　　According to the "Report", the traffic share of the word-of-mouth list page of knowing the car emperor increased by 1.7% in July compared with the beginning of the year, and the browsing significance of the car department word-of-mouth of users under the age of 30 exceeded 100. The demand for "avoiding pits" caused by young users’ lack of experience was even more significant. TAs are not only looking at word-of-mouth, but also more willing to share. In the decision-making stage of retention, users who intend to stay in the post-80s and post-90s browse word-of-mouth content significantly. For post-80s users, word-of-mouth has a more significant effect on users with high intention.

　　Platform social experience has also become the focus of young people. Knowing that Chedi Cheyou Circle is the "social" position of the car circle, young users after 90 pay more attention to Cheyou Circle. According to the Report, the page traffic share of car riders increased by 1.3% in July compared with the beginning of the year. Compared with middle-aged users, users under the age of 30 prefer to browse the content of car riders, and it is more significant to join the car riders when choosing a car.

　　Consistent with the performance of word-of-mouth decision-making, users after 1980s and 1990s all showed the characteristics that the browsing significance of car friends circle became more and more obvious with the increase of retention intention. Mature users are sensitive to parameter configuration in the overall decision-making period, but with the enhancement of users’ decision-making intention, this concern feature of young people appears, and the rational observation willingness of TAs in the early decision-making period is obvious.

　　In addition, the influence of automobile vertical content on the car purchase behavior of user groups has gradually increased. "Report" pointed out that in the stage of generating interest, young users after 1990s are more willing to watch UGC content (user-generated content) in the cycling circle, and TAs are more inclined to learn about vehicle models through interaction and other means. In the decision-making stage, the influence of content becomes more and more obvious with the increase of young users’ decision-making intention. According to the Report, the browsing significance of reserved users in the age range of 18-30 is 110, which is significantly higher than that of full-time users in the same range, and users from 1985 to 1995 are greatly influenced by professional content, and the browsing significance of PGC content pages by users exceeds 100.

　　Users’ willingness to compare is enhanced, and they are more willing to "spend ahead" after 90.

　　In the precipitation stage after generating interest, the user’s willingness to compare gradually increases, and the comparison ability of the main car buyers after 80 s and 90 s is relatively significant. Understand that the growth trend of clicking on PK(PV) is fluctuating and rising, with an increase of 58.2% in July compared with January. Among them, mature users aged 31-40 click on the vehicle comparison (PK) the most.

　　According to the Report, young post-90s users tend to compare the dominant indicators of products, such as the appearance and interior of cars, while older users will pay more attention to weighing the competitiveness of target models from the vehicle configuration and comprehensive level. In addition, disassembling the car price and careful calculation have become more and more important considerations for users to buy cars. The click trend of users in the station car purchase calculation shows a fluctuating growth trend, and the full payment and loan distribution of users are relatively balanced. According to the Report, 52% and 48% of users choose full payment and loan respectively.

　　It is worth mentioning that the consumption concept of young users is more radical. According to the Report, post-90s users are more sensitive to calculating car prices and have a stronger willingness to "spend ahead of time", and financial penetration is more significant for young users. Among them, the 18-23-year-old car purchase calculation has the highest significance, and the application loan conversion rate accounts for the largest proportion.

　　On the whole, Knowing Car Emperor released the report "Intergenerational Car Purchase Users’ Decision Insights from a Vertical Perspective", which deconstructed the overall consumption behavior characteristics of the current intergenerational crowd for brand owners, helped brand owners understand the differentiated needs of users, and also provided more professional and valuable information for the automobile industry, so as to promote the development of related industries.