In the first three quarters of 2024, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core, all localities and departments conscientiously implemented the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability, fully implemented the new development concept, solidly promoted high-quality development, intensified macro-control, effectively responded to risk challenges, and the national economy was generally stable.
First, the economy was stable and positive in the first three quarters, with continuous positive growth quarter on quarter.
In the first three quarters, China’s GDP was 94,974.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% at constant prices, and the overall economic operation was stable. Among them, the added value of the primary industry was 5,773.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and its contribution rate to economic growth was 4.6%; The added value of the secondary industry was 36,136.2 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year, and its contribution rate to economic growth was 41.5%. The added value of the tertiary industry was 53,065.1 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year, and its contribution rate to economic growth was 53.9%. The added value of the three industries accounts for 6.1%, 38.0% and 55.9% of GDP respectively.
In the third quarter, China’s GDP was 33,291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% at constant prices. Among them, the added value of the primary industry was 2,707.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and its contribution rate to economic growth was 6.2%; The added value of the secondary industry was 12,483.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and its contribution rate to economic growth was 37.2%. The added value of the tertiary industry was 18.1 trillion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year, and its contribution rate to economic growth was 56.6%.
From the ring comparison, after seasonal adjustment, GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.9%. The growth rate of the chain was positive for nine consecutive quarters, and the economy maintained a steady and positive trend.
Second, production and supply continued to grow, and industrial development progressed steadily.
In the first three quarters, the production and supply of various industries grew steadily. Agricultural production developed steadily, summer grain production increased, early rice was harvested, and animal husbandry production was stable. The added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery increased by 3.6% year-on-year, driving economic growth by 0.2 percentage points. Industry grew rapidly, with the added value increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, driving economic growth by 1.8 percentage points. The service industry continued to recover, and the information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services maintained double-digit growth, with the added value increasing by 11.3% and 10.1% respectively year-on-year, which together boosted economic growth by 0.9 percentage points; Wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering grew rapidly, with the added value increasing by 5.4% and 6.3% respectively.
In the third quarter, industrial production maintained a rapid growth trend, with the added value increasing by 5.1% year-on-year, driving economic growth by 1.5 percentage points. The service industry has recovered, and the growth rate of added value has risen steadily. Transportation, warehousing, postal services, accommodation, catering and other holiday economy-related industries developed well, with the added value increasing by 6.6% and 5.9% respectively, driving economic growth by 0.4 percentage points. The development of the financial industry accelerated significantly, with the added value increasing by 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 1.9 percentage points compared with the second quarter. The decline of the real estate industry narrowed, and the added value decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 2.7 percentage points compared with the second quarter.
Third, consumer investment continued to recover and net exports increased rapidly.
The scale of consumption has expanded. Since the beginning of this year, all localities and departments have put the promotion of consumption in a more prominent position, intensified efforts to promote the trade-in of consumer goods, and taken many measures to promote the high-quality development of service consumption. Consumer demand has generally continued to recover, and its basic role has been further played. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 49.9%, driving GDP growth by 2.4 percentage points.
Investment grew steadily. With the continuous release of macro-policy effects, the "two-fold" construction has been accelerated, large-scale equipment renewal has been solidly promoted, and the scale of effective investment has been steadily expanded to help the economy run smoothly. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of total capital formation to economic growth was 26.3%, which boosted GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points.
The net export growth trend is good. Against the background of unstable external environment and increasing uncertainties, China has unswervingly promoted high-level opening up, maintained steady growth in imports and exports, and further improved the quality level of international circulation. In the first three quarters, the net export of goods and services contributed 23.8% to economic growth, driving GDP growth by 1.1 percentage points.
Fourth, high-quality development has been steadily advanced, and new quality productivity has been cultivated and expanded.
The industrial structure was optimized and upgraded, and new kinetic energy accelerated its growth. In the first three quarters, the added value of equipment manufacturing industry above designated size and high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 7.5% and 9.1% year-on-year, respectively, which was 1.7 and 3.3 percentage points higher than that of all listed industries. 1— In August, the operating income of high-tech service enterprises above designated size increased by 9.5% year-on-year, which was 1.8 percentage points higher than that of all service enterprises above designated size.
Investment in key industries grew rapidly, and new quality productivity was cultivated and expanded. In the first three quarters, the national investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries increased by 9.4% and 11.4% respectively, which was higher than the growth rate of all fixed assets investment by 6.0 and 8.0 percentage points. Large-scale equipment renewal was promoted in an orderly manner, and the investment in the purchase of equipment and tools increased by 16.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 13.0 percentage points higher than the total investment.
The integration of number and reality is deepening day by day, and the foundation of integration is constantly consolidating. In the first three quarters, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 7.9% year-on-year, which was 4.6 percentage points higher than the total retail sales of social consumer goods, accounting for 25.7% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods. 1— In August, the operating income of software and information technology services, Internet and related services enterprises above designated size increased by 12.5% and 10.8% respectively, which was 4.8 and 3.1 percentage points higher than that of all service enterprises above designated size.
Note: Some of the total GDP and structural data in this paper are not equal to the sum of the items, which are caused by numerical rounding errors and have not been mechanically adjusted.
(Author Zhao Tonglu is the director of the National Economic Accounting Department of the National Bureau of Statistics)